Positive early indications in NYC

This is the current radar from the Philadelphia area. As is easily discernable, the precipitation is heaviest from New York City to the western suburbs of Philadelphia. The temperatures in both places are just above freezing. New York City is reporting sleet at this time, and southern New Jersey and eastern Long Island is reporting all rain.

Indeed, we have another bust on our hands, at least for the larger cities of the Mid-Atlantic. There is still a significant snowfall in progress for Connecticut and north of the Big Apple through the Hudson Valley.

The low jogged a bit to the west and warm air pumped into Long Island and approached too closely to the coast. This is a strong storm, and it has done a very good job of wrapping warm air in with the moisture. These big systems have a relatively thin area where the maximum accumulation of snow will fall. The dire predictions of two feet of snow will fall, but not in the major metropolitan areas that typically attract the headlines.

This is another tough blow to the integrity of meteorologists, who have struggled with the accuracy of large events of late. It’s even more dangerous, because this winter, the peril of storms has been overstated, and one worries that at some point, the public will switch off to the warnings of additional looming threats.