We’re off to southwestern Michigan, which has recently become a favorite destination for us and our forecasts.
At 1253PM, ET, Kalamazoo was reporting a brisk southerly flow with partly cloudy skies and a temperature of 77 degrees. The southerly flow was in response to an emerging surface low that is developing in the Mid Mississippi Valley at the base of an upper level trough swinging through the northern Plains. There is a primary circulation already centered over Manitoba, and this secondary circulation, which is producing some severe weather around Omaha, is in response to an organizing jet over the northern US.
The boundary moving through the Northern Plains, evidenced by the regions of cyclogenesis, is already occluded. A weak surface warm front will develop from southern Iowa to southern Michigan, with rain and thunderstorms in Kalamazoo throughout the day tomorrow. There is a lower level wave that will dampen out through the day tomorrow, which is helping to aid the severe threat today, but is indicative that storms will be more of the garden variety tomorrow. The jet will organize overnight Wedensday to Thursday, which will help to facilitate more convective activity, but will also encourage it to move on by late in the day on Thursday.
Tomorrow – Scattered rain and thunderstorms, High 79, Low 61
Thursday – Isolated showers and thunderstorms early, High 80, Low 64 (non standard)
TWC: Tomorrow – Scattered thunderstorms in the morning, then mainly cloudy during the afternoon with thunderstorms likely. High 80, Low 64
Thursday – Mixed clouds and sun with scattered thunderstorms. High 81, Low 71
AW: Tomorrow – A few strong t-storms; mostly cloudy, breezy, humid; storms can bring flooding and damaging winds High 79, Low 64
Thursday – Mostly cloudy; humid with a shower or thunderstorm High 81, Low 67
NWS: Tomorrow – Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 3pm. Increasing clouds High 80, Low 62
Thursday – A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy High 82, Low 69
WB: Tomorrow – A chance of showers and thunderstorms until midday, then showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. High 77, Low 64
Thursday – Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 77, Low 67
WN: Tomorrow – MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED STORMS High 81, Low 63
Thursday – MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED STORMS High 82, Low 70
FIO: Tomorrow – Light rain until evening. High 80, Low 62
Thursday – Light rain until evening. High 83, Low 69
It looks like a rainy few days in Lower Michigan, but just beyond this forecast, it looks like things are going to clear up for the weekend.