Our exercise in major thunderstorm avoidance continues tonight, as we head off to Naples for tonight’s forecast.
At 753pm, ET, Naples was reporting mostly cloudy skies and a temperature of 75 degres. There was one cluster of convection producing rain near Fort Myers, however radar attenuation and ground clutter made it more easily demarcated via satellite imagery than from the local radar. Otherwise, South Florida looked to be in pretty great shape for the night.
Long term, low resolution models paint a pretty stormy picture for south Florida over the next couple of days, but shorter range, higher resolution models paint a significantly less rainy picture going forward. That seems to be the most likely scenario. Brisk easterly trades will push afternoon convection towards the western side of the Peninsula and closer to the Naples area, but without inland flow around Naples, don’t expect too many heavy or long lived storms through Wednesday.
Tomorrow – Isolated thunderstorms, High 91, Low 71
Wednesday – Mostly sunny with an isolated afternoon storm, High 91, Low 71
TWC: Tomorrow – PM Thunderstorms, High 88, Low 71
Wednesday – PM Thunderstorms, High 91, Low 71
AW: Tomorrow – Sun and some clouds with a thunderstorm in the afternoon high 89, Low 70
Wednesday – Partly sunny and humid; a thunderstorm in a couple of spots in the afternoon High 81, Low 72
NWS: Tomorrow – A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 2pm. Mostly sunny, High 86, Low 71
Wednesday – A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly sunny, High 86, Low 71
WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning…then mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. High 88, Low 70
Wednesday – Partly sunny with a chanc High 88, Low 72
WN: Tomorrow – Partly Cloudy with Isolated Storms High 86, Low 72
Wednesday – Partly Cloudy with Isolated Storms High 86, Low 72
FIO: Tomorrow – Light rain throughout the day. High 87, Low 71
Wednesday – Light rain starting in the afternoon. High 89, Low 72
A bit of a range in temperatures. The WEather Channel actually has a 100% chance for thunderstorms tomorrow, which is mind boggling. HEre is the satellite of the western Caribbean, where you can certainly make out the thunderstorm complex just to the north of Naples.