We seem to be taking a lot of trips from the deep south of Texas lately. Well, two, I guess. This time, we will be headed there from western New York over the course of 3 1/2 days, Rochester and Brownsville are 1905 miles apart, and the pace we have set will be 64.3 an hour, or 514.4 miles on days 1-3, leaving a shorter day to finish off. Let’s make a run for the border.
DAY ONE (Monday)
High pressure only has a little bit of time left as the dominant feature of the Great Lakes before surface forcing starts to supersede the weakened summer upper level dynamics. Tomorrow is pretty much the last day that we will be ably to make a jaunt from Rchester to Florence, Kentucky (in the Cincinnati metro area) with little threat of a thunderstorm. When we get to the Cincinnati area, the threat for clouds and maybe a spot of drizzle will begin to rachet up, bu it’s not something I would feel terribly concerned about.
DAY TWO (Tuesday)
The center of the country will be working under an upper level ridge, yet the forecast, thanks t the preponderance of moisture brought forth by the Gulf and the remnants of energy descending from the Rockies is going to lead to a very summer like pattern of free convection. There isn’t much to suggest a very organized pattern on Tuesday, but wth topography in the Appalachians and the potential for a dry line in the southern Plains, it seems more likely that activity will be possible in those particular areas. Truth be told, though, model guidance isn’t great at handling summer time convection, and it’s even worse 2 full days ahead of time. There is a chance of a shower or thunderstorm pretty much for the entire day, which will take us to Forest City, Arkansas, between Little Rock and Memphis.
DAY THREE (Wednesday)
It does seem pretty universally agreed upon that rain and embedded thunderstorms will be far more likely nearer to the source of the moisture filtering into the center of the country. Across the board, the computer guidance suggests heavier rain in the Texarkana area south towards Houston. We should expect to contend with a few showers through the rest of Arkansas, but the rain will be more constant and torrential through eastern Texas. There will probably be some thunder in there too. It’s that time of year. We’ll get to Houston by the end of the day.
DAY FOUR (Thursday)
Onshore flow has been constant lately in the western Gulf of Mexico. It’s led to clouds that have been nearly constant, but with the environment becoming increasingly destabilized over the next few days, it seems fairly likely that those clouds will be joined by showers for the last few hours of our journey. It certainly won’t be as significant as the activity that we will see on Wednesday, but it will be a bit of a bummer.