This is the first of a double forecast to start the week. Expect Anthony to post a forecast for State College, PA this evening.
At 1053AM, ET, Battle Creek was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 33 degrees. There were reports of fog and clouds around them, but with a southeasterly flow into Battle Creek, the threat for snow was nonexistent. The jet was angled south of Michigan, but there was a ripple of a trough over the Pacific Northwest. While there was an upper level trough overhead, it was the ripple that bears watching in Battle Creek and across the country.
The broader yet weaker trough caused by the jet angling south of Battle Creek was actually fostering a system off of the Carolina coast. The stronger portion of the jet, albeit with the shorter wave, will interact with the Rockies and a surface low over Montana will deepen quickly and slide into Western Nebraska. As the low gets organized, a warm push will move into Southern Michigan overnight and by tomorrow morning, there will be a wintry mix which could include freezing rain. Precipitation will turn to rain, and winds will pick up as the low moves into the Upper Midwest. With the wind will come increased precipitation and warmer temperatures as a broad, strong upper level trough structure sets up. As the trough and surface low continue overnight into the day Wednesday, rain will become lighter, triggered by a strong cold front. It will be trailed by a significant Arcitc blast that will make the period beyond the forecast period very cold in Michigan.
Tomorrow – Frozen mix early, turning to rain. Rain will be steady in the evening, High 44, Low 30
Wednesday – Rain, tapering off in the afternoon, High 53, Low 41
TWC: Tomorrow – Showers High 44, Low 31
Wednesday – Showers High 46, Low 40
AW: Tomorrow – Mainly cloudy with a shower in places High 46, Low 31
Wednesday – Rather cloudy and windy with a shower in places High 51, Low 32
NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of snow showers before 8am, then a chance of sleet between 8am and 10am, then a chance of rain showers after 10am (snow and sleet early) High 46, Low 31
Wednesday – Showers likely after 1pm. Cloudy, High 51, Low 38
WB: Tomorrow – Cloudy with a 40 percent chance of rain (snow early). High 45, Low 31
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of rain. High 50, Low 41
I’m surprised that The Weather Channel and Accuweather aren’t on board with an icy mix early. I’m really surprised at how fast Accuweather brings in cold air. Accuweather, NWS and ourselves all have non standard days on Wednesday, but I thought the day would be warmer and cooling would be slower. Satellite shows that the low off the Carolinas is the ore well organized (for now).