Off to western New York for this overnight forecast. Is it going to be good weather for the second week of May? No? What can we expect?
At 1253AM, ET, Elmira was reporting a temperature of 48 degrees with clear skies. A dew point near 40 coupled with those clear skies suggests a threat for fog overnight tonight into tomorrow morning. An upper level trough in the central Plains is generating quite a bit of unsettled weather in the Great Lakes. A fairly strong upper level ridge lies over the mid-Atlantic as well, however the persistence of the trough west of town has established something of a dry line through northern Pennsylvania.
The upper level trough will do little by way of movement, however the ridge will push further north, meaning warmer conditions, and the introduction of more moisture, and a messier surface state. Showers and storms will crop up through the day on Monday. Guidance suggests enhancement of a low level trough over the eastern Great Lakes, artificially propogating a surface cold front. In plain English, that means showers and thunderstorms will become much more well organized, perhaps even severe, through the day Tuesday.
Tomorrow – Scattered showers and storms, High 66, Low 44
Tuesday – Showers and thunderstorms, possibly severe late, High 68, Low 53
TWC: Tomorrow – Showers High 66, Low 46
Tuesday – Rain / Thunder High 70, Low 53
AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a couple of showers High 68, Low 41
Tuesday – Periods of rain High 69, Low 53
NWS: Tomorrow – Showers likely, mainly after noon. Cloudy High 65, Low 42
Tuesday – Showers and possibly a thunderstorm High 68, Low 52
WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy. Showers likely…mainly in the afternoon High 65, Low 43
Tuesday – Showers with a chance of thunderstorms. high 68, Low 51