Lubbock, Texas

West Texas, where they have seen a more typical spring. Strong thunderstorms, changing temperatures, and now they are seeing a fairly steady threat for rain showers.

At 953AM, CT, Lubbock was reporting a temperature of 51 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. A cut off low over the southern Plains was rather effective in bringing low level moisture to the region, and just to the north of Lubbock, where clouds have been thicker, it’s 10 degrees colder in Plainview, and 14 degrees cooler in Amarillo. All this indicates how difficult the forecast should be.
The center of circulation for this low is quite evidently between Lubbock and Wichita Falls, south of Childress and north of Abilene. Model output suggests a solution that is a bit quicker than what is being seen at the surface, but the low is forecast to begin it’s shift northeast towards the Great Lakes. Guidance typically struggles with cut off systems, however, and without a strong trailer to give the low a push, it is generally expected that the system will continue to unravel through the next 24-36 hours, and instead of the system shifting, it will instead lose it’s ability to cycle in moisture. Lubbock is already at the southwestern flank of the system, so the dreary forecast isn’t as dire there as it would be along the Red River, for example. Eventually, there could be some clearing in the afternoon Friday and through Saturday.
Tomorrow – Morning clouds, and a threat for drizzle, becoming increasingly sunny. High 73, Low 41
Saturday – Sunny and warmer, High 84, Low 45

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny skies High 79, Low 41
Saturday – Mainly sunny. High 88, Low 48

AW: Tomorrow – Sunny to partly cloudy and warmer High 78, Low 40
Saturday – Very warm with sunshine High 87, Low 47

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny High 78, Low 39
Saturday – Sunny high 85, Low 46

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny…warmer. high 79, Low 39
Saturday – Sunny High 85, Low 45

So, apparently I am the only one who doubts the models. We’ll see how it goes. I hope I’m wrong, for your sake, Lubbock. Look at how swirly this low is, though.

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