Another perspective on Irene
I have always been the type to call for calm, and some might say reason when forecasting. I am rarely at the "worst case scenario" end of the spectrum when forecasting large events, like heavy snows or tornado outbreaks. The same goes for hurricanes, like Irene, preparing to move up the east coast.
Don't get me wrong... Irene will be a huge hassle and could create a dangerous situation for some areas. The risk, however, will not be what most talking heads have indicated, most notably in New York City, but to a lesser degree in places like Philadelphia. First, look at the latest model plots for the forecast track, (click to enlarge)
Following this track (and the 00z run of the GFS is coming in a bit further east, so there is a dissenting opinion), Irene will have to track overland from North Carolina right on to New York City. Even if it stays close to the coast, but off shore, she will move through shallow, cool water that will sap a lot of intensity.
What does this mean? I don't think New York will get hit by a hurricane. If any major cities are hit by hurricane force anything, I would say it would be Norfolk/Virginia Beach. Washington, Philadelphia, New York and Boston, in my opinion, are in line for tropical storm force winds (Washington and Philly because they are so far inland, NYC and Boston because of the storm's weakening) which, if you have been to any of those cities during a Nor'Easter, well, you know 50mph winds aren't that unusual.
The problem, in my mind, is instead going to be with the rain. Tropical storm or hurricane, torrential rain is going to come everywhere east of the Appalachians. 6-10" of rain will be a distinct possibility from Norfolk to Providence. Storm surge will be amplified by high tide, which will be higher than usual, thanks to a new moon. Expect these to be the real stories when Irene arrives this weekend.
That said, ground softened by several inches of rain could leave trees susceptible to a 50mph wind, which many places are likely to see. Flash flooding will compound any problems, especially in the Hudson Valley. And Irene will be a strong hurricane when it makes land fall initially in North Carolina.