We have a hurricane (almost)
Tropical Storm Alex is churning in the Bay of Campeche and now appears destined to make landfall south of the Rio Grande, but near enough to the US that it will certainly cause some consternation. This system has been incredibly difficult to get a bead on. Early in it's life cycle, it appeared as though the system would split the gap between the western tip of Cuba and the northern reach of the Yucatan, which would have allowed the storm to intensify rapidly before making a land fall somewhere in the eastern Gulf Coast.
Next, after model guidance had a better handle on it's directionality, there were questions about how the storm would hold together as it crossed the Yucatan. It appeared that he would be able to maintain enough circulation that he wouldn't send too much thunderstorm activity north into the central Gulf Coast. Well, Alex tracked over Belize and the southern, wider part of the Yucatan and was almost pulled apart. Now weakened, it appeared Alex would trudge slowly across the southern Bay of Campeche and make landfall as a weak hurricane at most, if it was able to get organized.
Well, now it has taken a northerly turn and is taking its time across the Gulf, getting stronger and better organized as he goes. Right now, it seems as though he will make his landfall late Wednesday night or tomorrow morning. The way it's gone so far, however, I wouldn't be surprised to see his track shift a little bit further north and into Brownsville. Here is the official track at this time.
